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Reserves Built $36.3bn. The Chequebook Paid Out $79.4bn. $43.1bn Did Not Arrive.
Reserve balances were $2,930.1bn as of 4 Nov, up $36.3bn on $2,893.8bn as of 28 Oct - the first weekly build since 7 October, and $22.8bn under the ceiling this column set a week ago. The Treasury's general account paid out $79.4bn over the same 7 days, so the model pointed to $2,973.2bn: $43.1bn of a $79.4bn payment never reached reserves, the second consecutive miss in that direction and a larger share of the cheque than last week's. Reverse repo take-up is $0.252bn, so nothing visible absorbed it. Secured overnight money fixed 1 basis point below the administered rate on 6 Nov, ending a 10-session run above it.
Equal-weighted percentiles of the history this site stores. 61.2 · GREED · HOW IT IS BUILT → · SHARE THIS →
| TENOR | LEVEL | 1D Δ | Z (3Y) | RANGE %ILE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y | 4.560 | +0.050 | +1.11 | 71 |
| 5Y | 4.670 | +0.030 | +1.68 | 75 |
| 10Y | 4.880 | +0.020 | +1.86 | 74 |
| 30Y | 5.260 | 0.000 | +1.61 | 76 |
| INSTRUMENT | LAST | 1D Δ | 1W Δ | Z (3Y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 20.44 | +0.52 | -1.23 | +0.58 |
| MOVE | 94.23 | +8.25 | -14.38 | -0.32 |
| DXY | 102.25 | +0.60 | -0.19 | -0.01 |
| USD/JPY | 158.81 | +0.52 | +0.13 | +0.96 |
| GOLD | $4,036 | -78 | +191 | +0.83 |
| COPPER | $6.252 | -0.077 | -0.028 | +1.54 |
| WTI | $86.06 | -0.79 | -13.61 | +0.81 |
| BTC | 73,380 | -1,843 | -1,265 | -0.20 |
| ETH | 2,042 | -90 | -114 | -0.90 |
| MSTR | 120.43 | -5.16 | -5.17 | -0.72 |
| SERIES | VALUE |
|---|---|
| SOFR (NY Fed) | 3.89% |
| EFFR (NY Fed) | 3.88% |
| IORB | 3.90% |
| SOFR − IORB | -0.010 bp |
| Reserve balances | 2,930 bn |
| Treasury General Account | 910 bn |
| Overnight RRP | 0 bn |
| 2s10s slope | 30.4 bp |
| 10Y real yield | 2.64% |
| 10Y breakeven | 2.22% |
| HY OAS | 3.42% |
| IG OAS | 0.93% |
| Initial claims | 189k |
| Continuing claims | 1,718k |
| CPI YoY | 3.72% |
| Core CPI YoY | 2.57% |
| Copper/Gold | 0.00154 |
| BTC 30d | -10.8% |
| BTC 5d | -1.7% |
